PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND EXTREME INDICES IN ILORIN, KWARA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Purpose –– This study examines the projected impact of climate change on rainfall, temperature, and climate extreme indices in
Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.
Methods –– The study analysed rainfall and temperature extreme indices by considering eleven (11) climate change indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) using RClimdex in the R software package. With MAKESENS software, the magnitude and trends in rainfall and temperature extreme indices were calculated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator.
Findings –– The study identified that most extreme rainfall indices were projected to decrease in the future (2020–2049),
with the exception of consecutive dry days (CDD), which increased. The temperature extremes analysis shows an
increasing trend in warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p), but a decreasing trend in cool days (TX10p) and cool nights (TN10p) for both the baseline and future periods.
Conclusion & Recommendation –– These findings provide valuable insights into the anticipated changes in rainfall, temperature, and climate extreme indices, contributing to our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on the study area and emphasizing the need for adaptive measures to address the projected challenges.
Keywords –– RCMs, Rainfall, Temperature, Kwara State,
Climate Extremes